The Enigma of J.J. McCarthy

Say what you will about J.J. McCarthy, the quarterback of the reigning National Champion Michigan Wolverines and one of the top Quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Some call him a product of a great system, carried by superior talent. Others say he has future star potential, a bonafide winner with high-end physical gifts and the intangibles that every NFL QB needs to be successful.

Personally, I sit somewhere in the middle.

Let’s get the positives out of the way first. The physical talent is undeniable. McCarthy has an absolute whip of an arm, evidenced by his 61 mph throw at the NFL Combine (2nd fastest only behind Tennessee QB Joe Milton), and good size for the position at 6’2″ and 219 lbs. He’s a leader of men, something you will hear from every player and coach at Michigan. He takes care of the football, as evidenced by the mere 4 interceptions this season and only 11 interceptions throughout his college career. He also possesses high-level mobility, both in and out of the pocket. He even has mind-bogglingly athletic plays that make scouts swoon, like his one-handed, spinning deep shot to Roman Wilson against Alabama in the Rose Bowl.

More than anything though, McCarthy has an undeniable clutch factor. His 67.1% 3rd down completion percentage is evidence enough, with that completion percentage going up the further from the first down he got (66.7% from 4-6 yards, 70.4% from 7-9 yards, and 77.3% from 10+ yards).

But one large thing clouds our judgment of McCarthy and his play; his lack of workload and subsequent lack of film. Compared to the other top quarterbacks in this year’s draft class, the difference in workload over the last two seasons is clear:

• Caleb Williams: 888 pass attempts
• Drake Maye: 942 pass attempts
• Jayden Daniels: 715 pass attempts
• Bo Nix: 879 pass attempts
• Michael Penix Jr: 1109 pass attempts
• JJ McCarthy: 652 pass attempts

Aside from the lack of attempts, there are also a number of issues with his play that pop up on film and in the numbers. For one, McCarthy has shown accuracy issues with deep throws, in particular on outbreaking routes and Go’s (also referred to as Nine’s) (see the following chart from Derrik Klassen at Reception Perception)

There are also multiple examples of JJ McCarthy being in very simple situations and still making awful mistakes, like the opening play against Alabama where he nearly threw an interception to a lurking safety while running a simple flood concept.

He also has a slight tendency to stare down his receiver, leading to him either not go through any progression or flip from a standard outside-to-inside progression to an inside-to-outside progression. My final gripe with McCarthy’s technique is his footwork. When watching his tape, his feet don’t feel as smooth as some of the other top QBs like Williams, Daniels, and Nix. At times you see a hesitancy in his steps and in the bend of his knees, which ultimately leads to ill-timed and forced throws.

In my opinion, McCarthy is the clear 4th best signal-caller in this class. There is no doubt that he has comparable gifts to the 3 QBs ahead of him (Williams, Daniels, and Maye) but his inexperience and lack of passing volume at Michigan make him much more of a gamble than the other 3. His ideal situation would be to land with a team that has a starter he can sit and develop for a year or two before he steps into the driver’s seat (like the New York Giants at 6th overall). However, it wouldn’t shock me if a team like the Minnesota Vikings or the New England Patriots opts for the higher floor prospect and decides that they prefer McCarthy to Maye. Regardless of what we think might happen, one thing is for sure; McCarthy will be the wild card QB pick of the 1st round this year.